My prediction for the next 20-25 years, deals with advances in the size and interfaces of computers.
Intel co-founder Gordon Moore made an observation and a quasi-prediction in 1965, that the number of transistors on a chip (integrated circuit) would double every two years (Mollick, 2006). A natural extension to Moore’s Law is that, if the number of transistors on the chip remains constant, chip size can decrease by half every two years. My prediction is based on this variant to Moore’s Law.
In 1999, Dr. Vaughan Pratt was running the Wearable’s Lab at the Stanford University Computer Science Department. One goal of the lab was to create a personal computer, the size of a button. At that time, almost 10 years ago, the lab already had a computer the size of a matchbox (Garone, 1999). This was only a 66 MHz computer, but in 1999, that was not so slow.
At a recent industry trade show for the Department of Defense, I had the opportunity to try out a full-scale computer, worn like a wristwatch. The whole computer was about the size of a cigarette pack and included a wireless network connection. It was an amazing device, with the only limitation being the keypad and the display unit.
My prediction is that, in 20 – 25 years, computers will be reduced to the size of a mole and be worn on the body, specifically the head. The power source for the computer will be the heat emanating from the body, with the head being the highest loss heat area on the body. This also places the computer in close proximity to the brain, where the input/output will occur.
Now, none of us want to have probes placed into our heads and I do not believe that will be necessary. Several years ago (mid-1990s), I watched a television documentary about a man who could steer his boat with nothing more than his thoughts. He had designed a device that would detect brain waves and could distinguish between the thoughts of “left” and “right.” More recently, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh, trained a monkey to grab pieces of food with a mechanical arm, purely by thought (Sofge, 2008).
The field of cybernetics is rapidly expanding and while the monkeys do have implants, I believe that the same effect will be accomplished in a nonintrusive manner. The use of an antenna embedded within the computer will be able to convert thoughts into computer commands and transmit the computer display, directly into the visual cortex of the brain.
Enough for now, you will have to wait for the next blog entry to see more.
References
Garone, L. (1999, May 15, 1999). Future PC the size of a button? San Mateo County Times, p. 1.
Mollick, E. (2006). Establishing Moore's Law. IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, 28(3), 62 - 75.
Sofge, E. (2008). For Future of Mind Control, Robot-Monkey Trials Are Just a Start. Retrieved 9/2008, 2008, from http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/4272246.html
edcs855 said...
The combination of cybernetics and nanotechnology will aid in this development and the realizing your prediction. The following web site http://www.cmf.org.uk/literature/content.asp?context=article&id=706 discusses the possible application, ethical issues, and who will have access to the new technology. Additionally, the site touches on the technologies application to warfare.
Another site http://biosingularity.wordpress.com/category/cybernetics/ addresses the usage towards visual aids and holographic web surfing. Yet another viewpoint on the cybernetics and nanotechnology challenge http://www.breakpoint.org/listingarticle.asp?ID=8274 .
September 12, 2008 at 10:11 AM