This week’s exercise is one of discussing a successful prediction. While there are not as many web sites devoted to successful predictions as unsuccessful ones, there are examples all around us. Most businesses that are in operation today are the result of a successful prediction. Somebody predicted that their founders could follow some business model and make a living. Microsoft, with Bill Gates as a prime example, is cited as the foundation for several unsuccessful predictions. However, the founders also predicted that the personal computer would be used widely enough to support an operating system company. Even they likely missed on the scope of the prediction, but the overall prediction was accurate. Fortune Magazine named Microsoft the 12th most admired company last year ( http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/2007/) and consistently names them in their list.
Likewise, most every item that we see, have, or hold, began as a prediction in one form or another. The Pepsi or Coke product that you drink is something that somebody predicted would be accepted by the masses and serves as a basis for making a living (image courtesy of http://www.art.com/asp/display-asp/_/ID--18208/Soda.htm?ui=F82A2C2C50C844568DC95A42691579CB).
History is full of successful predictions; all you have to do is look at the environment you live in.
My Classmates Blogs
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Email "Issues" - Due to Dynamic DNS?15 years ago
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Finally made it16 years ago
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Successful Prediction17 years ago
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Self Healing Technology17 years ago
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Zero Waste Nuclear Reactors - Phase 317 years ago
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Nigel -This one's for you17 years ago
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Education in Second Life17 years ago
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Week 7 - Think Tanks17 years ago
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First Post17 years ago
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TM said...
Steve
I agree with you, society today is full of successful predictions; Flight, Space Flight, International Space station and so on. All successful, but was it a predictions or a calculated assessment. Once flight occurred, the inevitable space flight was bound to happen and once that happened the space station was a foregone conclusion. The next phase should be colonization of the moon. But can these be classed as predictions. The scheme I mentioned above has already happened on numerous occasions. Every since man has existed there has been a need to explore and this is no exception, the only difference was how to get the exploration accomplished. When man started out, it was walking, then came riding on animals, next was wagons and so on, it was essentially the same series of events using water and now air. What I am trying to point out is the fact that all predictions are a built upon previous ones and it is man and his quest for knowledge that results in successful predictions and in the scheme of things all of us are futurists. Predictions are just a vehicle to go forward.
August 10, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Jan said...
I did like your successful predictions - getting up in the morning is a prediction that life as we know it will continue. There has been lots of research showing the more positive the outlook the more positive the results. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9806EFDF1538F931A3575AC0A9659C8B63
September 17, 2008 at 10:47 PM